Hybrid Value Per Share

Phase 1 fair-value definition

Phase 1 values only the two bankable legs of a hybrid Bitcoin-treasury company: the BTC it already owns, and the future BTC it can buy out of self-generated free cash flow. The operating business (a DCF leg) and any externally-funded accretion (ATM / convert raises) are deliberately excluded — they arrive in later phases.

Partial FV/share = CurrentBTCValue/share − (net senior stack/share, MSTR) + PV(FCF-funded BTC accretion)/share

CurrentBTCValue/share = (BTC held ÷ diluted shares) × BTC spot — marked to spot, not discounted.

MSTR net basis (face-value netting)

MSTR's headline defaults to net fair value: BTC NAV/share less its senior stack, netted at face value. Senior stack uses the current mNAV back-office cap-structure snapshot (2026-05-26): preferred $15.478B + convertible notes $6.754B − cash $0.871B = $21.36B net senior obligations. At MSTR's price the converts are deep out-of-the-money, so the if-converted case collapses into the net case and is not shown as a separate toggle. Untick "net MSTR of senior stack" above to see gross BTC NAV/share. Net basis uses the current MCP cap-structure snapshot (2026-05-26); the 10-Q (2026-03-31) cross-check yields +36%. MSTR reconciliation tie-out pending.

Future accretion (interpretation B — coins appreciate to horizon)

Each year a slice of normalized deployable FCF (Allocation %) buys BTC at that year's modelled price. Those coins are held to the horizon and the whole future-bought stack is marked to the horizon BTC price, then discounted back at the treasury discount rate:

coins_t = (DeployableFCF/sh × Alloc) ÷ P_t  ·  PV accretion/sh = (Σ coins_t) × P_horizon ÷ (1+r)^H

This is the agreed reading of the spec's anti-double-counting rule: the rule guards the currently-held leg from being re-appreciated, but future-bought coins are allowed to appreciate to the horizon — which is what makes the BTC scenario (Q25/Q50/Q75) actually move fair value. The currently-held leg owns its repricing once (at spot, today); the future leg owns its repricing once (at the horizon).

BTC price scenarios (reused, not refit)

Prices come from the locked power-law quantile model behind mnav…/btc/power-law/: ln(P_τ) = a_τ + b_τ·ln(H), with block height mapped forward at 144 blocks/day. Each year's price is a log-linear path from today's spot to the chosen quantile's power-law value at the horizon. Q25 / Q50 / Q75 = Low / Base / High; Q1 / Q99 are opt-in tail stress only.

Normalized deployable FCF

Ideally OCF − maintenance capex − mandatory debt service − min-liquidity Δ ± working-capital normalization. Where those line items aren't separately disclosed, Phase 1 uses a best-effort normalized annual FCF (held flat across the horizon, per the locked formula) and flags the confidence. If deployable FCF is negative it is clamped to zero accretion (MSTR's and SWC's operating cash flow is negative, so their fair value here is pure BTC NAV/share).

Confidence flags

high — directly disclosed   medium — derived from disclosed inputs   low — estimated (exact maintenance capex / WC not disclosed). Row flag = lowest of the inputs that feed fair value, where the deployable-FCF confidence counts only when accretion is non-clamped. A clamp (negative/zero deployable FCF) is surfaced as a separate FCF clamped badge so it can't silently raise the dot.

Currency

All comparison values are USD/share. CASH3 (BRL) and SWC (GBX) are converted at live FX; detail pages can show local currency on request.

Known Phase-1 limitations

• No operating-business value → operating-heavy names (XYZ/Block) show large, meaningless-in-isolation premiums. This is expected and is the entire reason for Phase 2; XYZ's premium cell is greyed out for that reason.
• MSTR is shown net of its senior stack (preferred + converts − cash, $21.36B, current MCP snapshot 2026-05-26) by default; the "net MSTR of senior stack" toggle removes the netting to show gross BTC NAV/share. Net debt / preferred for the other names remains excluded from per-share fair value (shown as info only).
• DeployableFCF is a normalized estimate, not a disclosed line item, for every name.
• Share counts are a snapshot of the mNAV back office (source of truth) as of 2026-05-31, derived from the public mNAV per-share feed until a first-class share-count field ships on the back-office API.