… — Model Fit
Is this company functioning as a Bitcoin proxy?
Model Fit (R²) ⓘ
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log-log, diluted
Slope ⓘ
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Classification ⓘ
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n Observations ⓘ
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Model Fit Scatter

Each dot is one trading day; colour deepens to BTC orange over time. The orange line is the OLS regression on log-log axes. A clean proxy hugs the line tightly (high R²) with a slope near 1.0.
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Rolling Model Fit

Rolling log-log R² over the selected lookback window. Useful for spotting recognition events (R² rising) or regime breaks (R² collapsing). Dashed line = 0.50 dropdown threshold. Dotted line = 0.40 recognition gate.

Leaderboard

Top 25 BTC-holding companies, ranked by lifetime log-log R². Rows below the 0.40 recognition gate are dimmed — these are companies that happen to hold Bitcoin, not Bitcoin plays. Click any row to focus on that company.
Company / Ticker R² Slope Classification n BTC stack

What Model Fit Measures

A pure Bitcoin treasury play is one where the share price is primarily driven by BTC value per share:

Share Price = mNAV × BTC Value per Share

Model Fit is the R² of that relationship — how tightly the equity tracks the line over its lifetime since BTC adoption. A high R² means the equity is functioning as a clean BTC proxy; the market is pricing it on its Bitcoin stack. A low R² means the share price is still being driven by something else — non-BTC business, regulatory baggage, geographic discount, or no story yet.

Slope is the second number worth reading. It's the log-log elasticity — the percentage change in share price per 1% change in BTC value per share. Slope ≈ 1 (0.6–1.8) means a clean proxy with a stable premium. Below 0.6 means dampened — the premium has been compressing as the BTC stack outgrows the equity multiple. Above 1.8 means amplified — the equity moves harder than the underlying NAV, often a small-cap with rising premium or a recognition catalyst. At or below 0 means broken — the equity has moved opposite to BTC NAV per share over the regression window. Slope is a lifetime average; the current mNAV ratio is a separate (instantaneous) snapshot and tells you a different thing.

Below 0.40 R², ignore. Even if BTC fundamentals look strong, the market hasn't started pricing the company as a BTC play, so capital is better deployed in companies whose prices have already connected with their NAV. Strong fundamentals plus low fit means waiting; strong fundamentals plus rising fit means a candidate.

Model Fit is the first of four gates in the broader allocation framework. The others — BTC stack, forecast CAGR, and days to flippening — only earn weighting once Model Fit clears the gate. Full method on mNAV Insights.

Lifetime regression of ln(share_price) ~ a + b·ln(B) where B is BTC value per diluted share, run since each company's BTC adoption date. R² measures how tightly the equity hugs its BTC NAV line; slope tells you the leverage. Slope ≈ 1 means a clean proxy; below 0.6 is dampened; above 1.8 is amplified; ≤ 0 means broken. Daily refresh from mnav.com's preparedChartData (sharePrice, btcValuePerShareDiluted, fullyDilutedShares). Model Fit is one of four factors in the full allocation framework — see mNAV Insights.