All programs
Daily predicted proceeds stacked by program (LHS) with cumulative pred + actual overlay (RHS).
Per-security detail
Daily predicted proceeds (bars) with actual + predicted cumulative overlays.
Daily predicted proceeds stacked by program (LHS) with cumulative pred + actual overlay (RHS).
Daily predicted proceeds (bars) with actual + predicted cumulative overlays.
All available history from the first preferred launch
| Ticker | Current Price | Div/Par | Yield |
|---|
Strategy files an 8-K every Monday with the prior week's ATM totals — nothing in between. To stay ahead of the next filing, the model reverse-engineers each program from public price & volume plus the latest 8-K. Each ATM has a known gating rule: mNAV premium throttles MSTR, a $100 par threshold gates STRC volume capture, STRF/STRK split via a logistic hurdle on relative effective yield, and STRD runs a fixed baseline cadence.
STRC's algo is pinned to its observed ~55% volume-capture rate above par, so the other four overlays calibrate around a fixed STRC contribution — one anchor, four free parameters, refit weekly as each new 8-K lands. The combined output is a forward forecast of this week's raise per program, and the BTC those proceeds will buy.
Common stock ATM — Strategy's main equity lever. Issuance gates on mNAV premium: ramps when MSTR trades well above BTC book value, throttles as the premium compresses, and effectively stops when mNAV falls below 1.0 (dilutive).
Issues only on days STRC closes at or above its $100 par threshold. The algo captures ~55% of daily volume × close on eligible days, net of fees — and pauses entirely below par. Largest raise capacity ($19.5B) so it dominates whenever price holds above par.
Shares a logistic-hurdle allocation with STRK. Their weekly split is driven by relative effective-yield z-score, liquidity share, premium-to-par spread, and time since STRK launch. STRF is the high-yield anchor of the pair.
Convertible into MSTR common at a fixed strike. Pairs with STRF under the logistic hurdle model; STRK wins share when its effective yield cheapens vs STRF or when MSTR rallies (the embedded call option gains value).
Runs on a locked baseline cadence — small, steady issuance rather than reacting to market signals. Drift-monitored only; Strategy dips into STRD opportunistically when the other preferreds are capped or gated.