STRC only fires above par. Below par the ATM sits — no shares sold, no BTC bought.
A perpetual preferred from MSTR, currently yielding ~11.5% at $100 par. Variable rate — reset monthly. This page measures how much BTC STRC has funded — today, this cycle, since IPO. Refreshed from SEC 8-Ks weekly and live market data hourly.
BTC bought today
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Live estimate of BTC acquired via the STRC ATM during today's regular session (ET). Computed from the model's eligible-volume proceeds for today's date (capture × volume × close × (1 − haircut)), reconciled against the live Massive market-data feed roughly every 90 seconds. Before the market opens, or on weekends and holidays, the tile reads near-zero. The week-to-date cumulative appears in the sub-text of the "This week (forecast)" tile next to this one; the 8-K filing in the blurb is the canonical lagging figure.
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BTC bought this week
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Forecast BTC purchases from STRC share sales this week (Mon–Fri). Days with actual data use real close and volume; unobserved days use trend estimates. Accuracy improves as the week progresses. Sub-text shows week-to-date BTC (sum of observed days so far) and which trading day of the week we're in.
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STRC vs $100 par
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Signed dollar gap between the current STRC price and the $100 par threshold — the single number that tells you whether the ATM can fire. Positive (green) = above par, ATM eligible. Negative (red) = below par, ATM paused. The green dot means a live tick from the Massive market-data API. Sub-text shows the exact current price and the STRC close on the date of the most recent 8-K filing.
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BTC this cycle
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Forecast BTC purchases for the full dividend cycle (last ex-div to next, ~22 trading days). Sub-text shows confirmed BTC so far plus how many days are observed vs projected.
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Loading current cycle state…
Daily forecast vs cumulative actual
Daily predicted (observed)Daily predicted (projected)Cumulative predictedCumulative actual
▸ Methodology & calibration
Note: historical predicted bars are retroactively calibrated to match cumulative actuals at the last 8-K — for USD that's the live capture rate, for BTC it bundles capture + cash→BTC conversion + per-filing btc_px mix. They reflect today's model, not the prediction made at the time.
Est. Bitcoin Acquired Today
1-minute intervals · est. — ATM capture rate · ATM assumed live whenever STRC ≥ $100 (pre-market and after-hours included)
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Cumulative est. BTC (or USD)Per-minute estimatedFull-day projection (target)
Estimate only. Cumulative = STRC close × volume × live capture rate, gated on STRC ≥ $100 across the full 4am–8pm ET window (pre-market and after-hours included). BTC mode converts via Strategy's last 8-K BTC price. Note: the full-day projection target (dashed line) = observed cumulative + the model's remaining regular-session expectation — so it stays a meaningful target through the day even when pre/post-market issuance has already exceeded the regular-session-only baseline. Reconciled weekly via SEC 8-K filings — if extended-hours volume doesn't show up in actual disclosures, the gate will revert to regular session only.
Each dot is one 8-K filing period — proceeds raised through the STRC ATM vs BTC acquired. Open circles = model projection for the remaining weeks of the current cycle.
X
Y
8-K actualProjected week
How to read this chart
Each filled dot is one completed 8-K filing period. The X axis shows how much Strategy raised through the STRC ATM (in USD millions or shares, toggle above); the Y axis shows how much BTC was acquired with those proceeds. Historical periods form a near-linear band — Strategy converts ATM volume to BTC at a fairly consistent rate, so the relationship is tight.
Open circles = this cycle's projections. The model takes the weeks remaining before the next 8-K and applies the current cycle's live capture rate — the fraction of eligible ATM volume that actually gets executed — to estimate how many proceeds and BTC each future week might contribute. The cluster of open circles therefore shows the plausible range of outcomes if the current pace continues. A compact cluster near prior dots means the cycle is tracking in-line with history; open circles well below the historical band flag a slow cycle.
Switch Y to $ today to restate BTC in current-price dollars — useful for comparing the dollar value of past purchases against projected future ones, independent of when each 8-K was filed.
Volume by cycle day
Daily volume by cycle day. Grey = prior 2-cycle average. Pink = this cycle so far.
Avg of previous 2 cyclesCurrent cycle (to date)
Computing...
Volume clusters in the back half of the cycle — the closer to ex-div, the more shares trade. That's when STRC's ATM has the most fuel.
Today's volume vs typical · 15-min profile
30-day avgToday
The opening 15 minutes are usually 2-3× the rest of the day. If today's bar runs ahead of the grey 30-day baseline, the ATM has more eligible volume to work with — assuming price is at or above par.
Capture rate · model fit
How much of eligible ATM capacity Strategy actually sells each week, vs what the dynamic model predicted. The dynamic model (orange line) uses daily volume and days-to-ex-div to vary the estimate week by week — — this week.
Actual capture (8-K)Dynamic model (vol + d2x)Projected weeks
Computing…
Capture has swung between ~27% and ~80% across observed 8-K weeks — roughly a 3× spread driven by volume and proximity to ex-div. The dynamic model explains ~71% of that variance (R²=0.71). Treat the weekly forecast as a midline through a wide cone.
STRC market cap
Shares outstanding over time. Bottom = IPO shares; top = ATM-issued. Right axis = IPO's shrinking share of total.
ATM Shares
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Total Outstanding
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IPO % of Total
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Market Cap
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IPO market capATM market capIPO % of total (right)
IPO buyers entered at $90 with a ~11% gain to par — likely sellers. ATM buyers enter near par for the yield (~11.5% annualized) — more likely to hold. Note: the chart shows cumulative-issued shares, not actual ownership changes.
Effective yield
Yield over time. Orange = declared rate at par. Pink = yield at current price. White = ex-div dates.
Effective yield (current price)Yield at par (historical step)Ex-dividend dates
The gap between pink and orange is your edge. The cash dividend is fixed — buy under par, lock in above-par yield until the price recovers. The faster the recovery, the shorter the window. Ex-div day is the cleanest entry; everything afterwards is competing with everyone else's stopwatch.
Volatility & Sharpe
Price stability and risk-adjusted return over rolling windows.
Annualized volatility (left)Sharpe ratio (right)Ex-dividend dates
Low vol + high Sharpe = better collateral. Better collateral = cheaper margin to borrow against. STRC's volatility isn't just a comfort metric — it's the input that prime brokers price at, which determines how much leverage holders can stack on top. Tightly bound prices are a feature, not boredom.
Recovery after ex-dividend
Price recovery after each dividend date, in trading days. The dotted line shows the trend toward $100 for the current cycle.
Current cycle (in progress)Trend → parAvg of previous 2 cyclesPrevious 2 individual cycles$100 parPrior par crossThis cycle par cross
Every cycle, STRC walks back to par. The question is how fast. A slow recovery = more days for fresh capital to lock in above-par yield; a fast one = the trade is over before retail wakes up. So far the bell rings on a roughly two-week schedule, give or take a market mood.
SEC 8-K filings
Every 8-K where Strategy sold STRC shares. Links to SEC EDGAR. Zero-issuance weeks not shown.
What is STRC?
STRC ("Stretch") is a perpetual preferred from Strategy Inc. ($MSTR). IPO'd July 2025 at $90, $100 par, Nasdaq-listed.
The dividend is variable — reset monthly to keep the running yield competitive. Holders currently earn ≈ 11.5% annualized. That's the lever that pins the price near par: when yield drifts low, the rate goes up; when too high, it eases.
STRC is a BTC accumulation vehicle. Every share sold through the ATM is cash Strategy uses to buy Bitcoin. Since IPO, STRC has funded — BTC across — weekly 8-K filings.
The structural rule: above par, Strategy sells. Below par, it sits. Selling sub-par would dilute existing holders, so it doesn't happen. This single rule — and the variable rate that defends it — is the whole engine.
How the model works
The basic rule
STRC only fires above par. On those days the model estimates proceeds as capture × volume × close, minus a small fee. "Capture" is the slice of eligible volume Strategy actually prints — refit weekly from the 8-Ks.
Forecast: observed + projected
Observed days use the real close and real volume. Future days get a trend estimate for price and the recent-median volume. If trend says sub-par, those days get $0 — same rule, same outcome.
Weekly update
Every Monday Strategy files an 8-K covering the prior week — shares sold, proceeds, BTC bought. The model ingests, refits capture, rolls the forecast forward. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Caveats
Capture has ranged 0.27 to 0.79 across 11 weeks — roughly a 3× spread. The model collapses that into one blended number, which is fine for direction and embarrassing for precision. The cycle band shown on the forecast tiles is the more honest read; the point estimate is the midline.
Live community model · not affiliated with Strategy Inc · not investment advice. Built on the same pipeline as Strategy ATM forecast. Refreshed —