SATA — Live ATM Forecast

Variable-Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred · $100 par · monthly dividend · par-gated ATM · loading...

Current price

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— from $100 par

Current yield

i What it shows Effective annualized yield at the current price. Formula declared_annualized_pct ÷ current_price × 100 Why it differs from the declared rate The declared rate is set against $100 par. When SATA trades below par, holders earn that rate on a smaller cost basis, so the effective yield rises above the declared rate. The "Δ" sub-text is current effective minus declared.

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Current week

i What it shows Projected SATA ATM proceeds and BTC purchases for Mon-Fri of the current trading week. Formula (per day) capture × volume × close × (1 − haircut) × 𝟙(close ≥ $100) v0 caveats Capture rate = 0.5547 (borrowed from STRC's live capture — same ATM mechanism, same par-gate). Used as a placeholder until a SATA 8-K discloses actual ATM proceeds, at which point the model refits a SATA-specific capture. Intraday-aware eligibility: on days where intraday data exists (last 5 sessions), eligibility is computed per-15-min bar using the bar's close + volume; days outside the intraday window fall back to a daily-close gate. This catches at-par intraday windows that the daily gate misses — important for SATA which doesn't reliably close above par. Projected days use last observed close + 10-day median volume.

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Current cycle

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Last cycle

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Cycle position

i What it shows Calendar-day count within the current dividend cycle. How calculated days_since_last_exdiv / cycle_length_days Cycle cadence SATA pays monthly dividends. Cycle = previous ex-div → next ex-div (~30 days).

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Loading current cycle state…

SATA price & volume · last 5 trading sessions (15-min bars)

$100 par is the issuance threshold. Volume bars on the right axis, colored blue on issuance-eligible periods (close ≥ par). Cyan dotted line = post-ex-div recovery trend (intraday-derived OLS from the trough), projecting forward to the model's expected par-crossing date — marked by the green vertical labelled "par cross (proj)". Shaded area on the right = next-session look-ahead. White verticals = ex-dividend dates; gold = next ex-div. Hover any bar for close + volume.

SATA close $100 par Ex-dividend Eligible volume Paused volume

Effective yield · since SATA listing

Annualized declared dividend ÷ current price × 100. Orange step = historical declared rate (yield at par at the time). Blue = yield holders realize at the current market price. White verticals = ex-dividend dates.

Effective yield (current price) Yield at par (historical step) Ex-dividend dates Announced rate (forward, dashed)

The gap between the blue and orange lines is the discount holders capture. SATA pays a declared monthly cash dividend regardless of cost basis — so when the price dips below par (which it does on most days currently), buyers earn a higher effective yield than par holders. The wider that gap, the more attractive the entry. Strive resets the rate each month against $100 par, so the orange line is what the next dividend pays at par; the blue line is what you'd actually realize at today's price.

Ex-dividend recovery · trading days from ex-date

How SATA's price recovers after each ex-dividend drop. Cyan dashed = current cycle (in progress); pink solid = average of prior 2 cycles; faint grey = those individual cycles. The cyan dotted line (when present) is a linear trend fit — daily-OLS when 3+ post-trough closes exist, otherwise intraday-derived from the current cycle's intraday recovery — projecting forward to its expected par crossing. Prior cycles render at daily resolution (intraday history not retained beyond 5d).

Current cycle (in progress) Trend → par Avg of previous 2 cycles Previous 2 individual cycles $100 par

Volatility & Sharpe ratio · 21-day rolling

Volatility = annualized std-dev of daily returns. Sharpe = (declared annualized yield − 3.6% risk-free) ÷ volatility. Negative Sharpe is mathematically impossible at SATA's declared rate — floor at 0.

Annualized volatility (left) Sharpe ratio (right) Ex-dividend dates

Lower volatility and a higher Sharpe make SATA a more stable hold — useful both as a pure income position and as collateral. Strive's ATM mechanics rely on an orderly market, and a lower-volatility preferred is easier to issue at par; that feeds the BTC accumulation. SATA is structurally newer than STRC (listed Nov 2025), so this series is still finding its volatility floor — expect Sharpe to widen as the cycle pattern stabilises.

Today's volume vs typical · 15-min profile

Today's session volume by 15-minute bucket overlaid on the prior 30-trading-day average.

30-day avgToday

Volume by cycle day · daily average i What it shows Average daily trading volume by trading-day offset from each ex-date, averaged across the prior 2 completed cycles. Current cycle's actual is overlaid. Why it matters If above-par issuance is happening, volume should ramp up after par-crossing and peak just before next ex-div (the deadline-driven STRC pattern). Flat = no issuance pressure. Sample size caveat SATA has 4 completed cycles total. Baseline averages the most recent 2. With n=2, the grey bars are noisy — a single anomalous cycle can pull the average sharply. Treat the shape as directional, not predictive, until ≥6 cycles accumulate. "Ratio" in tooltip Hover any day to see the current/baseline ratio. Above 1.0 = current cycle running heavier than typical (potential ATM activity).

Average daily trading volume by trading-day offset from each ex-date over the prior 2 completed cycles (grey), with current cycle's actual to date overlaid (blue). Hover any day for current vs prior-avg ratio.

Avg of previous 2 cycles Current cycle (to date)

Dividends paid · since SATA listing

Each row is a confirmed cash dividend received by holders of record on the ex-date. Annualized rate = cash × 12 ÷ $100 par.

SATA market cap · 8-K snapshots i What it shows SATA preferred shares outstanding at each disclosed 8-K snapshot, with market cap (price × shares) at the latest snapshot. Why it's sparse Strive only discloses SATA share counts in 8-K filings (currently 4 data points: 2026-04-02, 04-13, 04-24, 05-01). The chart steps at each filing date — between filings the dashboard has no visibility into intra-window issuance pace. Implied proceeds (at par) Cumulative issued shares × $100 par = upper-bound dollar proceeds. Actual proceeds depend on intraday at-par fill prices and ATM agent fees (~$0.13/share). Lower bound when SATA traded sub-par (which it largely did in this window).

SATA shares outstanding stepping up at each 8-K snapshot. Bottom tile shows current implied market cap (latest disclosed shares × current price). The "Implied proceeds (at par)" tile is an UPPER BOUND on ATM dollars raised — assumes every issued share sold at $100 par.

SATA Shares Outstanding

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Market Cap (latest)

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Cumulative Issued (since 1st snapshot)

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Implied Proceeds (at par)

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SATA shares outstanding (left) Market cap at $100 par (right) 8-K snapshot dates

Step changes mark new 8-K filings — between snapshots Strive doesn't disclose intra-window issuance pace, so the line is honest about what we know vs. what we infer. The "implied proceeds at par" tile is an upper bound: it assumes every issued share sold at $100. Real proceeds are lower because (a) SATA closed sub-par on most days in the disclosure windows and (b) the ATM agent skim (~$0.13/share) reduces net. The cumulative-issued figure is the most reliable read; market cap at par is the best ceiling on dollars raised until proceeds are disclosed directly.

Forecast charts unlock with the first SATA proceeds 8-K

The "Daily forecast vs cumulative window-actuals" and "Capture rate · 8-K window" charts are hidden until Strive files an 8-K disclosing actual ATM proceeds (USD). Until then, the charts would compare a borrowed-STRC prediction against an upper-bound that includes non-ATM share issuance — both sides too noisy to be useful. The model still forecasts BTC purchases in the hero tiles using the borrowed STRC capture (0.5547); those numbers are honest as a placeholder, but the cumulative-vs-actual story isn't trustworthy yet.

What unlocks v1: a single Strive 8-K with an explicit "ATM proceeds: $X.XM during period Y → Z" line. The Monday EDGAR poller (sata-8k-monday-check) catches new filings; this section auto-shows when meta.phase flips to v1.

What is SATA?

SATA ("Strive Asset Treasury Accumulation") is the Variable-Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock of Strive Inc. (Nasdaq: ASST), the public BTC treasury company formed via the Strive Asset Management / Asset Entities merger. It trades on Nasdaq under the ticker SATA with a $100 par / liquidation preference and a monthly cash dividend.

Like Strategy's STRC, SATA is a variable-rate preferred. Strive resets the dividend rate at the start of each monthly accrual period to keep the yield close to the prevailing market clearing level. The current declared rate is — annualized.

SATA is a capital-raising vehicle: net proceeds from each share sale via the at-the-market (ATM) program are used by Strive to buy Bitcoin and (occasionally) other treasury preferreds like STRC. The ATM has a $500M aggregate offering cap and is administered by Cantor Fitzgerald under a December 2025 sales agreement.

Strive has explicitly stated that SATA will not be issued via ATM below $100 par — issuing below par would dilute existing holders. This means the $100 close is a hard binary in the issuance mechanics, identical to STRC's threshold model.

v1 roadmap — what arrives with the first ATM-proceeds 8-K

This dashboard is in v0 (borrowed STRC capture) mode. The capture rate is a placeholder taken from STRC (0.5547) — same ATM mechanism, same par-gate, so it's a reasonable proxy until SATA gets enough of its own data to fit. v1 unlocks when Strive files an 8-K disclosing actual ATM proceeds (USD) per cycle.

A scheduled task polls SEC EDGAR for Strive's CIK 1920406 every Monday at the same cadence as Strategy's recalibration job. Once a proceeds-disclosing 8-K lands, the following will tighten:

✓ This-week / this-cycle / last-cycle BTC forecast tiles. Eligible-volume × close × capture × (1 − haircut), with intraday-aware par gating. Currently uses borrowed STRC capture; auto-switches to a SATA-specific fit once meta.phase flips to v1.

✓ Daily forecast vs cumulative window-actuals chart. Predicted line uses the borrowed STRC capture; the "actual" line steps at each 8-K snapshot date by Δshares × $100 par (upper bound). When proceeds get disclosed, the actual line replaces with true cumulative USD.

✓ Capture rate per 8-K window. n=2 honest sample (4/14→4/24 and 4/27→5/1). Treat as observation points until ≥4 windows AND proceeds are disclosed — then it replaces with a rolling per-cycle fit.

✓ SATA market-cap stack. Step chart at 8-K snapshot dates showing SATA shares outstanding over time + market cap at latest price.

→ True per-cycle calibration. Once the first 8-K with proceeds_usd lands, capture refits to proceeds_usd ÷ Σ(close × volume × eligibility × (1 − haircut)) for that cycle's windows, and the dashboard advances to v1.

Live community model · not affiliated with Strive Inc · not investment advice. Sister site to STRC ATM Forecast.
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