BTC Treasury Preferreds — Which Is Mispriced Right Now?

Yield Curve — BTC Treasury Preferreds

Five BTC-treasury preferreds. Plotted by yield vs risk. The curve says which one the market is mispricing — right now.

See which BTC-treasury preferred — STRC, STRK, STRF, STRD or SATA — is trading cheap or rich against a fair-value curve built from coverage, liquidity, call risk, ATM pressure, issuer risk and structural quirks. Updated daily.

Structured opinion, not a market-derived signal. The premium-stack model imposes specific yield premiums per risk component; OLS is illustrative only. Don't take any spread inside ±200 bps seriously (n=5).

In a BTC drawdown, STRD is where stress hits first. STRF is what survives.

The fair-value curve below shows whether the market is paying you enough for that distinction — right now.

STRCVariable-rate monthly-reset preferred. ATM gates at $100 par. Strategy's main BTC-funding lever. variable-rate · STRF10% cumulative preferred. Senior in the cap stack. The defensive name. high-yield fixed · STRK~8% convertible preferred. Has embedded MSTR call option. convertible · STRD~10% non-cumulative preferred. Junior position. Higher yield, higher risk. junior, non-cumulative · SATAStrive's variable-rate preferred. Same mechanic as STRC, different issuer. Strive's equivalent

Yield vs Risk — fitted fair curve

How to use this dashboard

The signal you want is the spread to fair curve, in basis points. Positive = market is paying you more than fair-value for the risk you're taking (cheap). Negative = you're overpaying for safety (rich). Historically, anything beyond ±200 bps has been worth investigating; inside that range is sampling noise (n=5 — see methodology below).

Use the BTC-stress dropdown in the controls panel to replay coverage in stressed scenarios — the scatter chart above re-renders instantly. Try −50% and watch how seniority decides who survives.

Past behaviour and a structured opinion, not a buy/sell signal. The premium-stack model assumes specific yield premiums per risk component — disagree by editing the coefficients in your head.

Yield metric X-axis Fair-value model

Cheap/rich threshold (bps) BTC stress Include fixed-rate Include variable-rate

Spread to fair curve — ranking

Click a row to load its detail panel below. Sort by clicking column headers.

Curve residuals (bps)

Positive = trades wide / cheap relative to fair curve. Negative = trades tight / rich.

Coverage vs yield

Does the market demand more yield for weaker BTC NAV coverage?

Liquidity vs spread

Cheap on good liquidity, or rich on poor liquidity?

Selected preferred

Premium-stack breakdown

Methodology + caveats

click to expand

How the risk score is built

Composite risk score = 0.30·coverage + 0.20·liquidity + 0.15·call + 0.15·ATM-pressure + 0.10·issuer + 0.10·structural. Each component is 0–100, where higher = riskier.

OLS fits a straight line through the 5 points: yield = α + β · risk_score. With only 5 names (3 degrees of freedom), the line's 95% confidence band is wide and any single security materially tilts the slope. Treat anything inside ±200 bps as sampling noise.

Premium-stack sets fair yield = base + Σ(component_risk × premium-k), with coefficients: coverage 3.0%, liquidity 2.0%, call 1.5%, ATM 2.0%, issuer 2.0%, structural 1.0%. Base is calibrated so the peer-average fair yield equals the peer-average actual yield. This is a structured opinion with explicit priors, not a market-derived fit.

Where the data comes from

Live: price + 30d volume (yfinance), variable-rate dividends (latest issuer 8-K), coverage score (BTC-NAV waterfall ÷ cumulative-senior LP), ATM pressure for STRC and SATA (4-week shares-issued velocity), call risk (price-to-LP premium), structural risk (seniority rank + cumulative flag).

Still mocked: ATM pressure for STRF/STRK/STRD (Strategy doesn't disclose ATM-issued shares for those three in the same column), issuer risk (all 5).

Structural flags: conv convertible (current yield ignores option value); non-cum non-cumulative (missed dividends are gone); var variable-rate (yield resets monthly).

Caveats

Curve-fit caveat. n = 5. The OLS slope's 95% CI is roughly ±20 bps per risk-score unit. Removing any single security materially changes the fit. Treat the line as illustrative; the premium-stack model is the load-bearing fair-value reference.

Comparability caveat. STRK is convertible, STRD is non-cumulative, STRC and SATA are variable-rate with floating liquidation preference. A unified yield-vs-risk plot will systematically misread these structural differences as relative value. Cross-check with the per-security structural flags.

High-yield caveat. A high yield (e.g., STRD at 13%) may be fair compensation for genuine risk — junior position, non-cumulative, lower liquidity — not mispricing.

Coverage-score caveat. Coverage is computed from real BTC NAV + per-ticker preferred liquidation preference, but: (1) STRF/STRK/STRD ATM-issued shares aren't in the same disclosure column, so their current outstanding (and LP) is underestimated — coverage scores for those three are slightly over-stated; per-ticker LP sums to ~$10.4B vs the issuer's $13.5B aggregate (~30% gap). (2) Spot coverage produces an ordering of STRK ≈ STRF > STRD > STRC because STRC's size dominates the senior stack. The market disagrees — STRK trades at a 22% discount to LP — so spot coverage understates STRK risk; the market is pricing stress scenarios. structural_risk partly compensates.

Mock-input caveat. ATM pressure for STRF/STRK/STRD and issuer risk for all 5 are still placeholders. Sensitivity of the curve to these is significant. Treat the relative ranking as more reliable than the absolute spread numbers.

Investment caveat. This is an analytical screen. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Related dashboards

The yield curve compares the 5 preferreds against each other at a moment in time. For per-name forecasts, see the STRC live ATM forecast (Strategy's biggest preferred — weekly recalibration from 8-Ks) and the SATA live ATM forecast (Strive's variable-rate preferred). For the underlying BTC context, the BTC power-law chart shows where Bitcoin itself sits in its historical range — useful for sanity-checking what a big BTC drawdown would do to coverage. Open the mNAV menu at the top of this page for the full set.