Strategy 1M BTC vs BTC $1M — the race

This is a race between two milestones. The orange line is Bitcoin's price, climbing toward $1,000,000 (left axis). The blue step line is Strategy's BTC stack, climbing toward 1,000,000 BTC (right axis). Both axes are calibrated so their 1M target sits at the very top of the chart — so wherever a line touches the ceiling is the date that milestone is reached. The eye does the race automatically.

Solid lines are history. Dashed lines are the forward projection. The translucent bands are the scenario range: for BTC, the p5–p95 power-law quantile envelope; for the stack, the bear-to-bull span. The two vertical markers show the projected crossing date for each line under the scenario you've selected.

BTC price is projected with mNAV's block-height power-law fit — the same model behind the Power-Law dashboard. The dashed line is the median (p50) fair-value path; today's spot sits below it, which is why the orange history ends under the projection. Strategy's stack is projected from a power-law fit on its cumulative holdings, anchored to today's actual 843,740 BTC so history and projection join cleanly. Base case carries the long-run accumulation pace forward; bull carries the recent 12-month pace; bear assumes the pace roughly halves.

The two projections are independent. We deliberately do not model the feedback loop where a higher BTC price funds faster capital raises (and faster stacking), or where Strategy's buying supports the price. Keeping them independent keeps the chart honest about what each line actually projects.

This dashboard combines two models that live on their own pages:

· The BTC $1M projection uses the same block-height power-law fit on BTC Power-Law — including the forecast cone and quarterly calibration backtest.

· The Strategy 1M BTC projection is fit on Strategy's cumulative holdings since 10 Aug 2020. The week-by-week BTC buying that drives it is modelled live on Strategy ATM.

· A Strategy buy ≥5,000 BTC in a single week → pulls the Strategy 1M date forward.

· A pause of two or more weeks with no Strategy 8-K disclosure → pushes the Strategy 1M date back; bear-case widens.

· BTC closing above its 110-day MA after a sub-MA stretch → BTC $1M cone steepens; p50 date pulls in.

· A zone transition on the power law (Accumulation → Trend) → BTC $1M cone re-anchors. Cone shape changes more than the median.

· The model's weekly refit (Monday morning UTC) → both dates can shift by days based on the prior week's actuals.

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Strategy already holds about 84% of its 1,000,000-BTC target and is still buying aggressively, so it only needs to close a small remaining gap. Bitcoin, by contrast, is near 8% of its $1,000,000 price target — a roughly 13× move that even a steep power-law puts years out.

From mNAV's block-height power-law fit. Each quantile (p5/p25/p50/p75/p95) is a line in log-price vs log-block-height space; we project block height forward at ~144 blocks/day and read off the date each quantile first reaches $1,000,000. The default countdown uses the p50 (median) path.

A power-law fit on Strategy's cumulative BTC holdings since its first purchase on 10 Aug 2020, anchored to its actual current stack so the projection is continuous with history. Base carries the full-history slope; bull uses the trailing-12-month pace; bear halves the long-run slope.

No. The power-law is a long-run trend that price oscillates around, not a forecast of where BTC will trade on any given day. Treat the dates as model scenarios, not guarantees.

The stack's current value, percent-of-target and ETA all update on the next data refresh. A larger or faster buy pulls the 1M-BTC date forward; a pause pushes it back.

They are intentionally independent fits. The real-world feedback loop between BTC price, capital raises and Strategy's buying is discussed in the methodology prose but deliberately kept out of the model so each line projects only its own series.