Strategy 1M BTC vs BTC $1M

The orange cone is Bitcoin's projected price path; the blue line is Strategy's projected BTC stack. Where the blue line crosses 1,000,000 BTC, the orange cone tells you what Bitcoin is doing that day.

This dashboard combines two models that live on their own pages:

· The BTC $1M cone consumes the block-height power-law quantile bands from BTC Power-Law. Same fit, same p5/p25/p50/p75/p95 paths.

· The Strategy 1M BTC cone consumes the Richards/Gompertz fit from the Stacking Curve drilldown. The fit is anchored to Strategy's first BTC purchase on 10 Aug 2020. The week-by-week BTC buying that drives it is modelled live on Strategy ATM.

If either source model updates, this page updates with it on the next refresh.

· A Strategy buy ≥5,000 BTC in a single week → pulls the Strategy 1M date forward; the cone re-anchors.

· A multi-week pause with no Strategy 8-K disclosure → pushes the Strategy 1M date back; the cone widens.

· BTC closing above its 110-day MA after a sub-MA stretch → BTC $1M cone steepens; p50 date pulls in.

· A zone transition on the power law (Accumulation → Trend) → BTC $1M cone re-anchors. Cone shape changes more than the median.

· The Stacking Curve weekly refit (Monday morning UTC) → Strategy cone re-shapes; ETA can shift by days based on the prior week's actuals.

From the same block-height power-law fit as the BTC Power-Law dashboard, evaluated at the Strategy p50 1M-BTC ETA date (not at the $1M crossing). The p50 is the marker shown on the chart; the p25–p75 envelope is the band shown in the convergence card.

From the same Richards curve as the Stacking Curve drilldown — a generalised S-shape fitted to Strategy's cumulative BTC holdings since its first purchase on 10 Aug 2020. The fit is anchored to today's actual stack so history and projection join cleanly. The dashed blue line on the chart is the median projection; the band around it is the 95% confidence cone derived from the fit's RMSE, with a denser 50% inner band for the analyst eye. The line goes faded past the 1M crossing — the model keeps producing values toward its fitted asymptote (~1.36M BTC).

It's where the BTC power law projects Bitcoin to be on the day Strategy crosses 1,000,000 BTC. The wider p25–p75 band shows the uncertainty in the BTC cone at that point. If the convergence price is well above today's spot, the asset has years of catching up to do while Strategy finishes. If it's near spot, BTC's run-up has done most of the work and Strategy's last 16% rides on a higher base.

The two projections don't talk to each other. Strategy's buying partly funds itself through BTC price strength, and BTC price strength is influenced by the demand Strategy creates. We discuss that feedback loop in the methodology — but the model deliberately keeps the lines independent so each one projects only its own series. The dates are honest about that: not interlocked.

No. The power-law is a long-run trend that price oscillates around, not a forecast of where BTC will trade on any given day. Treat the dates as model scenarios, not guarantees.

The stack's current value, percent-of-target and the convergence date all update on the next data refresh. A larger or faster buy pulls the convergence date forward (and re-reads the BTC cone at the new, earlier date); a pause pushes it back.